Forecast of myocardial infarction incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035 using a microsimulation model with endogenous disease outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Models that forecast non-communicable disease rates are poorly designed to predict future changes in trend because they are based on exogenous measures of disease rates. We introduce microPRIME, which forecasts myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035. microPRIME can forecast changes in trend as all MI rates emerge from competing trends in risk factors and treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: microPRIME is a microsimulation of MI events within a sample of 114,000 agents representative of England. We simulate 37 annual time points from 1998 to 2035, where agents can have an MI event, die from an MI, or die from an unrelated cause. The probability of each event is a function of age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes and previous MI. This function does not change over time. Instead population-level changes in MI rates are due to competing trends in risk factors and treatment. Uncertainty estimates are based on 450 model runs that use parameters calibrated against external measures of MI rates between 1999 and 2011. FINDINGS: Forecasted MI incidence rates fall for men and women of different age groups before plateauing in the mid 2020s. Age-standardised event rates show a similar pattern, with a non-significant upturn by 2035, larger for men than women. Prevalence in men decreases for the oldest age groups, with peaks of prevalence rates in 2019 for 85 and older at 25.8% (23.3-28.3). For women, prevalence rates are more stable. Prevalence in over 85s is estimated as 14.5% (12.6-16.5) in 2019, and then plateaus thereafter. CONCLUSION: We may see an increase in event rates from MI in England for men before 2035 but increases for women are unlikely. Prevalence rates may fall in older men, and are likely to remain stable in women over the next decade and a half.

Are the Eatwell Guide and Nutrient Profiling Models Consistent in the UK?

A nutrient profiling model (NPM) was developed in 2005 in the UK to regulate the marketing of foods to children. It was revised in 2018, but the new version has not been finalised. The Eatwell Guide (EWG) is the UK's official food-based dietary guidelines. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the 2005 and 2018 versions of the NPM and the EWG. Using recent National Diet and Nutrition Surveys, we estimated the healthiness of individual diets based on an EWG dietary score and a NPM dietary index. We then compared the percentage of agreement and Cohen's kappa for each combination of the EWG score and NPM index across the range of observed values for the 2005 and 2018 versions. A total of 3028 individual diets were assessed. Individuals with a higher (i.e., healthier) EWG score consumed a diet with, on average, a lower (i.e., healthier) NPM index both for the 2005 and 2018 versions. Overall, there was good agreement between the EWG score and the NPM dietary index at assessing the healthiness of representative diets of the UK population, when a low cut-off for the NPM dietary index was used, irrespective of the version. This suggests that dietary advice to the public is broadly aligned with NPM-based food policies and vice-versa.

Are food and drink available in online and physical supermarkets the same? A comparison of product availability, price, price promotions and nutritional information.

OBJECTIVE: Online supermarkets are increasingly used both by consumers and as a source of data on the food environment. We compared product availability, nutritional information, front-of-pack (FOP) labelling, price and price promotions for food and drink products between physical and online supermarkets. DESIGN: For physical stores, we collected data on price, price promotions, FOP nutrition labels and nutrition information from a random sample of food and drinks from six UK supermarkets. For online stores, we used foodDB, a research-ready dataset of over 14 million observations of food and drink products available in online supermarkets. SETTING: Six large supermarket stores located near Oxford, UK. PARTICIPANTS: General sample with 295 food and drink products, plus boost samples for both fruit and vegetables, and alcohol. RESULTS: In the general sample, 85 % (95 % CI 80, 90 %) of products found in physical stores could be matched with an online product. Nutritional information found in the two settings was almost identical, for example, concordance correlation coefficient for energy = 0·995 (95 % CI 0·993, 0·996). The presence of FOP labelling and price promotions differed between the two settings (Cohen's kappa = 0·56 (95 % CI 0·45, 0·66) and 0·40 (95 % CI 0·26, 0·55), respectively). Prices were similar between online and physical supermarkets (concordance correlation coefficient > 0·9 for all samples). CONCLUSIONS: Product availability, nutritional information and prices sourced online for these six retailers are good proxies of those found in physical stores. Price promotions and FOP labelling vary between the two settings. Further research should investigate whether this could impact on health inequalities.

A systematic review, and meta-analysis, examining the prevalence of price promotions on foods and whether they are more likely to be found on less-healthy foods.

OBJECTIVE: There are concerns that price promotions encourage unhealthy dietary choices. This review aims to answer the following research questions (RQ1) what is the prevalence of price promotions on foods in high-income settings, and (RQ2) are price promotions more likely to be found on unhealthy foods? DESIGN: Systematic review of articles published in English, in peer-review journals, after 1 January 2000. SETTING: Included studies measured the prevalence of price promotions (i.e. percentage of foods carrying a price promotion out of the total number of foods available to purchase) in retail settings, in upper-mid to high-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: 'Price promotion' was defined as a consumer-facing temporary price reduction or discount available to all customers. The control group/comparator was the equivalent products without promotions. The primary outcome for this review was the prevalence of price promotions, and the secondary outcome was the difference between the proportions of price promotions on healthy and unhealthy foods. RESULTS: Nine studies (239 344 observations) were included for the meta-analysis for RQ1, the prevalence of price promotions ranged from 6 % (95 % CI 2 %, 15 %) for energy-dense nutrient-poor foods to 15 % (95 % CI 9 %, 25 %) for cereals, grains, breads and other starchy carbohydrates. However, the I-squared statistic was 99 % suggesting a very high level of heterogeneity. Four studies were included for the analysis of RQ2, of which two supported the hypothesis that price promotions were more likely to be found on unhealthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of price promotions is very context specific, and any proposed regulations should be supported by studies conducted within the proposed setting(s).

Guidelines for the management of hereditary colorectal cancer from the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG)/Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI)/United Kingdom Cancer Genetics Group (UKCGG).

Heritable factors account for approximately 35% of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, and almost 30% of the population in the UK have a family history of CRC. The quantification of an individual's lifetime risk of gastrointestinal cancer may incorporate clinical and molecular data, and depends on accurate phenotypic assessment and genetic diagnosis. In turn this may facilitate targeted risk-reducing interventions, including endoscopic surveillance, preventative surgery and chemoprophylaxis, which provide opportunities for cancer prevention. This guideline is an update from the 2010 British Society of Gastroenterology/Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (BSG/ACPGBI) guidelines for colorectal screening and surveillance in moderate and high-risk groups; however, this guideline is concerned specifically with people who have increased lifetime risk of CRC due to hereditary factors, including those with Lynch syndrome, polyposis or a family history of CRC. On this occasion we invited the UK Cancer Genetics Group (UKCGG), a subgroup within the British Society of Genetic Medicine (BSGM), as a partner to BSG and ACPGBI in the multidisciplinary guideline development process. We also invited external review through the Delphi process by members of the public as well as the steering committees of the European Hereditary Tumour Group (EHTG) and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE). A systematic review of 10 189 publications was undertaken to develop 67 evidence and expert opinion-based recommendations for the management of hereditary CRC risk. Ten research recommendations are also prioritised to inform clinical management of people at hereditary CRC risk.

Global benchmarking of children's exposure to television advertising of unhealthy foods and beverages across 22 countries.

Restricting children's exposures to marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages is a global obesity prevention priority. Monitoring marketing exposures supports informed policymaking. This study presents a global overview of children's television advertising exposure to healthy and unhealthy products. Twenty-two countries contributed data, captured between 2008 and 2017. Advertisements were coded for the nature of foods and beverages, using the 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) Europe Nutrient Profile Model (should be permitted/not-permitted to be advertised). Peak viewing times were defined as the top five hour timeslots for children. On average, there were four times more advertisements for foods/beverages that should not be permitted than for permitted foods/beverages. The frequency of food/beverages advertisements that should not be permitted per hour was higher during peak viewing times compared with other times (P < 0.001). During peak viewing times, food and beverage advertisements that should not be permitted were higher in countries with industry self-regulatory programmes for responsible advertising compared with countries with no policies. Globally, children are exposed to a large volume of television advertisements for unhealthy foods and beverages, despite the implementation of food industry programmes. Governments should enact regulation to protect children from television advertising of unhealthy products that undermine their health.

Regulating health and nutrition claims in the UK using a nutrient profile model: an explorative modelled health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Health-related claims (HRCs) are statements found on food packets that convey the nutritional quality of a food (nutrition claims) and/or its impact on a health outcome (health claims). The EU stated that HRCs should be regulated such that they can only appear on foods that meet a specified nutrient profile (NP). A NP model has been proposed, but not agreed by the European Commission. METHODS: To model the impact of HRCs on health impacts in the UK, we built a front-end model to a pre-established non-communicable-disease (NCD) scenario model, the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) by combining data from a meta-analysis examining the impact of HRCs on dietary choices and a survey of pre-packaged foods examining the prevalence of HRCs and the nutritional quality of foods that carry them. These data are used to model the impact of regulating HRCs on the nutritional quality of the diet and PRIME is used to model the health outcomes associated with these changes. Two scenarios are modelled: regulating HRCs with a NP model (the FSANZ NPSC and a draft EU model) so that only foods that pass the model are eligible to carry HRCs, and reformulating HRC-carrying foods that fail the model. RESULTS: Regulating the use of HRCs with a NP model (the FSANZ NPSC) would have unclear impacts on population health and could potentially lead to less healthy diets. This is because HRCs are currently more likely to be found on products with a better nutritional profile and restricting their use could shift consumers to less healthy diets. Two hundred fifty-eight additional deaths (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UI] -6509, 8706) were predicted if foods did not change in their nutrient composition. If all foods that currently carry HRCs were reformulated to meet the NP model criteria then there would be a positive impact of using the model: (4374 deaths averted (95%UI -2569, 14,009)). The largest contributor to the uncertainty is the underpowered estimates of nutritional quality of foods with and without claims. CONCLUSIONS: Regulating HRCs could result in negative health impacts, however the wide uncertainty intervals from this analysis demonstrate that a larger health impact assessment is necessary.

A systematic review, and meta-analyses, of the impact of health-related claims on dietary choices.

BACKGROUND: Health-related claims are statements regarding the nutritional content of a food (nutrition claims) and/or indicate that a relationship exists between a food and a health outcome (health claims). Their impact on food purchasing or consumption decisions is unclear. This systematic review measured the effect of health-related claims, on pre-packaged foods in retail settings, on adult purchasing decisions (real and perceived). METHODS: In September 2016, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CAB abstracts, Business Source Complete, and Web of Science/Science Citation Index & Social Science Citation Index for articles in English published in peer-review journals. Studies were included if they were controlled experiments where the experimental group(s) included a health-related claim and the control group involved an identical product without a health-related claim. Included studies measured (at an individual or population level); actual or intended choice, purchases, and/or consumption. The primary outcome was product choices and purchases, the secondary outcome was food consumption and preference. Results were standardised through calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the likelihood of choosing a product when a health-related claim was present. Results were combined in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-one papers were identified, 17 of which were included for meta-analyses. Most studies were conducted in Europe (n = 17) and the USA (n = 7). Identified studies were choice experiments that measured the likelihood of a product being chosen when a claim was present compared to when a claim was not present, (n = 16), 15 studies were experiments that measured either; intent-rating scale outcomes (n = 8), consumption (n = 6), a combination of the two (n = 1), or purchase data (n = 1). Overall, 20 studies found that claims increase purchasing and/or consumption, eight studies had mixed results, and two studies found consumption/purchasing reductions. The meta-analyses of 17 studies found that health-related claims increase consumption and/or purchasing (OR 1.75, CI 1.60-1.91). CONCLUSION: Health-related claims have a substantial effect on dietary choices. However, this finding is based on research mostly conducted in artificial settings. Findings from natural experiments have yielded smaller effects. Further research is needed to assess effects of claims in real-world settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO systematic review registration number: CRD42016044042 .

The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the 'Eatwell Guide'). METHOD: Using multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that could be averted. RESULTS: Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2) for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6) for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2) DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000) new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000) new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index), around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised. CONCLUSIONS: The dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.

Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines.

OBJECTIVES: To model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations while deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide). DESIGN: Optimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations. SETTING: The UK. POPULATION: Adults aged 19 years and above from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet. RESULTS: The optimised diet has an increase in consumption of 'potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates' (+69%) and 'fruit and vegetables' (+54%) and reductions in consumption of 'beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins' (-24%), 'dairy and alternatives' (-21%) and 'foods high in fat and sugar' (-53%). Results within food groups show considerable variety (eg, +90% for beans and pulses, -78% for red meat). The modelled diet would cost £5.99 (£5.93 to £6.05) per adult per day, very similar to the cost of the current diet: £6.02 (£5.96 to £6.08). The optimised diet would result in increased consumption of n-3 fatty acids and most micronutrients (including iron and folate), but decreased consumption of zinc and small decreases in consumption of calcium and riboflavin. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve the UK dietary recommendations would require large changes in the average diet of UK adults, including in food groups where current average consumption is well within the recommended range (eg, processed meat) or where there are no current recommendations (eg, dairy). These large changes in the diet will not lead to significant changes in the price of the diet.

Quantifying the Association Between Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The relationships between physical activity (PA) and both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have predominantly been estimated using categorical measures of PA, masking the shape of the dose-response relationship. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, for the very first time we are able to derive a single continuous PA metric to compare the association between PA and CVD/T2DM, both before and after adjustment for a measure of body weight. METHODS AND RESULTS: The search was applied to MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases for all studies published from January 1981 to March 2014. A total of 36 studies (3 439 874 participants and 179 393 events, during an average follow-up period of 12.3 years) were included in the analysis (33 pertaining to CVD and 3 to T2DM). An increase from being inactive to achieving recommended PA levels (150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic activity per week) was associated with lower risk of CVD mortality by 23%, CVD incidence by 17%, and T2DM incidence by 26% (relative risk [RR], 0.77 [0.71-0.84]), (RR, 0.83 [0.77-0.89]), and (RR, 0.74 [0.72-0.77]), respectively, after adjustment for body weight. CONCLUSIONS: By using a single continuous metric for PA levels, we were able to make a comparison of the effect of PA on CVD incidence and mortality including myocardial infarct (MI), stroke, and heart failure, as well as T2DM. Effect sizes were generally similar for CVD and T2DM, and suggested that the greatest gain in health is associated with moving from inactivity to small amounts of PA.

Prevalence of Nutrition and Health-Related Claims on Pre-Packaged Foods: A Five-Country Study in Europe.

This study is part of the research undertaken in the EU funded project CLYMBOL ("Role of health-related CLaims and sYMBOLs in consumer behaviour"). The first phase of this project consisted of mapping the prevalence of symbolic and non-symbolic nutrition and health-related claims (NHC) on foods and non-alcoholic beverages in five European countries. Pre-packaged foods and drinks were sampled based on a standardized sampling protocol, using store lists or a store floor plan. Data collection took place across five countries, in three types of stores. A total of 2034 foods and drinks were sampled and packaging information was analyzed. At least one claim was identified for 26% (95% CI (24.0%-27.9%)) of all foods and drinks sampled. Six percent of these claims were symbolic. The majority of the claims were nutrition claims (64%), followed by health claims (29%) and health-related ingredient claims (6%). The most common health claims were nutrient and other function claims (47% of all claims), followed by disease risk reduction claims (5%). Eight percent of the health claims were children's development and health claims but these were only observed on less than 1% (0.4%-1.1%) of the foods. The category of foods for specific dietary use had the highest proportion of NHC (70% of foods carried a claim). The prevalence of symbolic and non-symbolic NHC varies across European countries and between different food categories. This study provides baseline data for policy makers and the food industry to monitor and evaluate the use of claims on food packaging.

How many foods in the UK carry health and nutrition claims, and are they healthier than those that do not?

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to measure the prevalence of different types of health and nutrition claims on foods and non-alcoholic beverages in a UK sample and to assess the nutritional quality of such products carrying health or nutrition claims. DESIGN: A survey of health and nutrition claims on food packaging using a newly defined taxonomy of claims and internationally agreed definitions of claim types. SETTING: A national UK food retailer: Tesco. SUBJECTS: Three hundred and eighty-two products randomly sampled from those available through the retailer's website. RESULTS: Of the products, 32 % (95 % CI 28, 37 %) carried either a health or nutrition claim; 15 % (95 % CI 11, 18 %) of products carried at least one health claim and 29 % (95 % CI 25, 34 %) carried at least one nutrition claim. When adjusted for product category, products carrying health claims tended to be lower in total fat and saturated fat than those that did not, but there was no significant difference in sugar or sodium levels. Products carrying health claims had slightly higher fibre levels than products without. Results were similar for comparisons between products that carry nutrition claims and those that do not. CONCLUSIONS: Health and nutrition claims appear frequently on food and beverage products in the UK. The nutrient profile of products carrying claims is marginally healthier than for similar products without claims, suggesting that claims may have some but limited informational value. The implication of these findings for guiding policy is unclear; future research should investigate the 'clinical relevance' of these differences in nutritional quality.

Reds are more important than greens: how UK supermarket shoppers use the different information on a traffic light nutrition label in a choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Colour coded front-of-pack nutrition labelling ('traffic light labelling') has been recommended for use in the UK since 2006. The voluntary scheme is used by all the major retailers and some manufacturers. It is not clear how consumers use these labels to make a single decision about the relative healthiness of foods. Our research questions were: Which of the four nutrients on UK traffic light labels (total fat, saturated fat, sugar and salt) has the most influence on decisions? Do green lights or red lights have a greater influence? Are there age and gender differences in how people use the colour and nutrient information? METHODS: We recruited participants from a UK supermarket chain membership list to conduct an online choice experiment in May 2014. We analysed data using multilevel logisitic models with food choices (n = 3321) nested in individuals (n = 187) as the unit of analysis. RESULTS: A food with more reds was 11.4 (95% confidence intervals: 10.3, 12.5) times less likely to be chosen as healthy, whereas a food with more greens was 6.1 (5.6, 6.6) times more likely to be chosen as healthy. Foods with better colours on saturated fat and salt were 7.3 (6.7, 8.0) and 7.1 (6.5, 7.8) times more likely to be chosen as healthy - significantly greater than for total fat (odds ratio 4.8 (4.4, 5.3)) and sugar (5.2 (4.7, 5.6)). Results were broadly similar for different genders and age groups. CONCLUSIONS: We found that participants were more concerned with avoiding reds than choosing greens, and that saturated fat and salt had a greater influence on decisions regarding healthiness than total fat and sugar. This could influence decisions about food reformulation and guidance on using nutrition labelling.

Nutrient profiling and the regulation of marketing to children. Possibilities and pitfalls.

This paper gives a definition of 'nutrient profiling' and outlines the scope 'marketing of foods to children' and it's 'regulation' for the purposes of the paper. It then points out that nutrient profiling has many other purposes besides the regulation of marketing of foods to children. It briefly outlines the ideal process for developing a nutrient profile model and summarises how nutrient profiling models have been validated to date. It discusses how existing nutrient profiling models for the purpose of regulating the marketing of foods to children can be compared and it concludes that nutrient profiling has much potential but that there are several obstacles to overcome before an ideal model for regulating the marketing of foods can be agreed.

Where has all the chocolate gone? A national survey assesses the effects of recent legislation to improve the nutritional quality of English secondary-school vending.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity levels are rising in almost all parts of the world, including the UK. School food offers children in Great Britain between 25 % and 33 % of their total daily energy, with vending typically offering products high in fat, salt or sugar. Government legislation of 2007 to improve the quality of school food now restricts what English schools can vend. In assessing the effect of this legislation on the quality of English secondary-school vending provision, the response of schools to these effects is explored through qualitative data. DESIGN: A longitudinal postal and visit-based inventory survey of schools collected vending data during the academic year 2006-2007 (pre-legislation), 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 (both post-legislation). Interviews with school staff explored issues of compliance. Product categorisation and analysis were carried out by product type, nutrient profiling and by categories of foods allowed or prohibited by the legislation. SETTING: English secondary schools. SUBJECTS: A representative sample of 279 schools including sixty-two researcher-visited inventory schools participated in the research. RESULTS: School vending seems to have moved towards compliance with the new standards - now drinks vending predominates and is largely compliant, whereas food vending is significantly reduced and is mostly non-compliant. Sixth form vending takes a disproportionate share of non-compliance. Vending has declined overall, as some schools now perceive food vending as uneconomic. Schools adopting a 'whole-school' approach appeared the most successful in implementing the new standards. CONCLUSIONS: Government legislation has achieved significant change towards improving the quality of English school vending, with the unintended consequence of reducing provision.

Outcome measures used in forensic mental health research: a structured review.

BACKGROUND: The evidence base for forensic mental health (FMH) services has been developing since the late 1990s. Are outcome measures sound enough for the evaluation tasks? AIMS: To identify, from published literature, outcome measures used in FMH research and, where feasible, assess their quality. METHOD: A structured review was undertaken of trials and intervention studies published between 1990 and 2006. Details of outcome variables and measures were abstracted. Evidence regarding most frequently occurring outcome measures was assessed. RESULTS: Four hundred and fifty different instruments were used to assess outcomes, incorporating 1038 distinct variables. Very little evidence could be found to support the measurement properties of commonly used instruments. CONCLUSIONS: and implications for practice There is little consistency in the use of outcome measure in FMH research. Effort is required to reach consensus on validated outcome measures in this field in order to better inform practice.